2009 Prognose von Robert Prechters Team

[volatil]

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/ ... -2009.aspx

A Look at What the Future Holds in 2009
You Say Good-bye, and I Say Hello



By Susan C. Walker
Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:30:00 ET Email | Print | RSS | My Updates Bookmark and share It!





"You say good-bye, and I say hello," sang The Beatles on their Magical Mystery Tour album from 1967. Anyone who grew up in the '60s and '70s can remember all the lyrics to Hello Goodbye. Here's our brief list of what we're saying good-bye to from the watershed year of 2008, as well as what we're saying hello to in 2009.

Say good-bye to…

- conspicuous consumption
- gas guzzlers
- TV reality shows (well, we can dream, can't we?)
- nasty, divisive election campaigning (hurray!)
- the surge in Iraq
- hedge fund hegemony

Say hello to…

- the new austerity, where you actually wait to buy something until you have the money
- dealing with pawn shops and shopping at consignment stores
- smaller cars
- nasty, divisive election promise-breaking (boo!)
- the surge in Afghanistan
- hedge fund horror stories

Say good-bye to…

- clearing brush and riding mountain bikes as presidential fitness pursuits
- a fat Sunday newspaper filled with ads
- believing that the geniuses on Wall Street knew what they were doing
- investment banks (They are all commercial banks now with more oversight.)
- feeling rich and using your house as an ATM to draw out cash
- junk mail that used to fill your mailbox, now that credit card companies are no longer trying to hand out credit
- complacency about the future – whether it be retirement years or the survival of the U.S. economy

Say hello to…

- basketball in the White House – swoosh!
- a struggling newspaper industry thinning its ranks
- prosecuting Wall St. swindlers like Bernie Madoff
- going to the credit union to refinance your house at a lower mortgage rate
- feeling poor now that investments, 401(k)s and houses have lost 20%-50% of their value
- new taxes being imposed by state legislatures
- more spam in your email inbox offering get-rich-at-home schemes
- fear about what the future holds and whether financial markets will recover

So, now that we've said hello to 2009 and good-bye to 2008, let's take a look at what Bob Prechter predicted back in 2003 for the year we're about to enter and beyond. Of the more than 100 forecasts Bob made, based on his reading of the Wave Principle and how it plays out in social mood, I have picked three per category to list. (To get the whole list, please check these stories: What the Bear Market Has in Store Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.)

Finance
- Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will drop more than 90 percent.
- Real estate values will fall more than they did in the 1930s and 1940s.
- Bearish speculators will make a lot of money, and safety-minded investors will see their purchasing power rise.

The Economy
- The trend toward economic contraction that began in 2001 will continue to develop into a depression.
- A record number of manufacturing companies in the U.S. will fail [1/2/09 update: Manufacturing falls to 28-year-low, in Institute for Supply Management's industrial production index.]
- China will have a severe economic setback along with the rest of the world, but it will be a “wave 2,” from which the country will emerge as the economic leader of the world.

Politics
- Government will ration goods and services in which it is or becomes involved (such as gasoline, vaccines, medical care, electricity, water, food, etc.).
- Third parties will gain political clout and win local elections. Libertarians, greens and others will capture many local offices and probably at least one state government.
- At least one of the two major parties will disappear or re-form.

Other Social Trends
- The suicide rate will go up.
- Well-off people will adopt fashions that conceal rather than accentuate their wealth.
- The Olympic Games will be cancelled at least once, if not terminated altogether.

[samuifly]

[ist gegangen worden]

Robert Prechter ist ein dauerpessimist.Irgendwann wird er schließlich mal richtig liegen.

[Turon]

Robert Prechter ist ein dauerpessimist.Irgendwann wird er schließlich mal richtig liegen.

Nicht unbedingt. Er hat diesem Stempel bekommen, als er, glaube ich 1980, die Riesenhausse der Folgejahre viel zu lange Zeit als noch korrigierbarer "Betriebsunfall" der Elliott Wellen angesehen hat.

Schönen Gruß!